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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  April 28, 2019 7:00am-8:00am PDT

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on my "it's my party" summer tour. cast your vote by saying "vote for world of dance" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. or as j-lo likes to call it, your v-mo. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start today's show with isis. for months, president trump has been boasting that the so-called islamic state is now stateless. >> the isis caliphate is
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defeated 100%. 100% obliterated. >> the terror group this week claimed credit for the sri lanka atta attacks. i'll ask john miller if they could be dying and attacking at the same time. also, is the world ripe for another financial meltdown? and would world leaders be handicap in reacting if one did come along? i'll talk to the three men that rescued the economy the last time around, ben bernanke, and more. a riddle of sorts, what does the border between ireland and northern ireland and this weeke weekend's elections in spain have in common? i'll give you the answer. first, here is my take, consider
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for a moment what the growing talk of impeachment among democrats sounds like to the tens of millions of people that voted for donald trump. many of them supported him because they feel ignored, mocked and condesended to? the same elites have maneuvers to overturn the results of the 2016 election. it would increase the cloud resentment and turn the topic away from his misdeeds and towards the democrats over reach and obsessions and ultimately, of course, would fail. two-thirds of this republican control senate would not vote to convict trump allowing the president to brandish his acquittal like a gold medal across the country. i know, i know, many argue passionately that this is not a
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political affair but a moral and a legal one. after reading the mueller report, they say congress has no option but to fulfill its obligation and impeach trump. but this view misunderstands m impeachment entirely. it's by design an inher raent process, not a legal one. misdemeanors is not used in criminal procedures and that's why the decision is entrusted to a political body congress, not the courts. after three cases in america's past, history's judgment is only one was wholly justified, the impeachment proceeding against nixon. andrew johnson's decision to fire the secretary of war should not have led to his impeachment, the same is true for bill clinton's deal that triggered an independent counsel to acquire that went into completely unrelated areas.
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for some democrats, impeachment talk might be a short-term calculations. if you're running for the democratic nomination, it a way to get attention. if you're consolidating attention with the party's base, the fiercely anti trump you are the better but all these moves only work as long as house speaker nancy pelosi slow rose the process and stops it from getting out of hand. the democrats have a much better path in front of them, they should pursue legitimate investigations of trump bringing witnesses and release documentary proof of wrongdoing but they should at the same time show the public that they would be a refreshing contrast to trump substantive, policy oriented, civil and focused on the country not on their base. america is tired of the circus of donald trump, that doesn't mean they want the circus of the house democrats. trump is vulnerable with strong
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economic numbers he has astonishingly approval ratings. he would likely run his 2020 campaign on cultural nationalism as he did the last one. democrats need to decide what their vision will be, that should be their focus for the next two years, not the unfunded hope if they have impeachment miracles will take place and a deeply divided country will coalesce around them. the real challenge for democrats goes beyond trump. it is trump-ism. a right wing populism that swelled in the united states over the past decade. surely the best way to take it on is to combat it ideologically and defeat it electorally. the power and legit legitimate.
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read my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪ the attacks, on tuesday isis claimed responsibility from the easter sunday bombings. president trump had celebrated the demise of isis' so-called caliphate but that doesn't mean out. we have a great guest to help us understand, john miller is the deputy commissioner of intelligence and counterterrorism for the new york city police department. what does it mean, john, in this case an isis that had been destroyed is able to be
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rerecollectrest recollected. >> it wasn't a caliphate, wasn't an army that meant from nypd's sa stand point, it was a terrorist group. one that had a limited capability. we hadn't seen a complex external plan run by isis since the paris attacks, the bataclan theater. here you have a multi layered external multiple locations and bombers that stayed under the radar and we can talk about the reasons for that later but a very effective attack where the claim of responsibility from isis central indications, portals, something we have to look at and wonder if we got it wrong with isis in terms of external capability.
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>> what does it mean that isis was involved in this? these were all locals and could it be they reached out to isis and isis liked it idea of branding on the other hand it seems more say it. >> if you look at the group on the ground in sri lanka, this is a group that had been involved in mostly hate speech against buddhist, some vandalism, the idea of dog a coing a complex ln is this group punching way above the weight class. something happened. that's an intelligence gap. what we have to learn is did isis find this group connect with them online and realize they had an opportunity? did they send a facilitator that brought up the level of their professionalism with bomb
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making, planning and so on or was that a combination of returning fighters from sri lanka who came back, hooked up with the group and brought their level of capability up? we don't know the answer to that, but we don't know the how it happened, but you can certainly tell that it happened. >> it feels like a crime of opportunity. they sense -- i mean, this is not the biggest place to do it, the places would be obviously, new york, london, paris. they chose sri lanka because they could. >> i think that is exactly right. i think they would have rather done that in a european capital as they have in the past in terms of targeting but sri lanka offered a group on the ground, willing individuals, and the targets. they have a christian church. you had a symbolic holiday. it's where it came together for them and they exploited it. >> the other target of opportunity might have been the sri lanka government is divided
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and dysfunctional. you had an extraordinary account where the indian intelligence gave the sri lanka government weeks in advance, what was going to happen, chatter they picked up and because the president and prime minister are fighting, it didn't get out properly. that seems almost bizarre. >> i mean, there was a document that went to security officials. i think what they have done there is probably the proper thing, which is let's first worry about getting the bad guys, preventing further attacks and then let take a hard look at how this was communicated. the new york version of this would have been you get the threat information, you get to the bad guys and disrupt them if you can. the information isn't enough to get to the bad guys and stop it, then you increase the security of the target locations and you weigh that difficult question, do we share this with the public if it an unvetted threat if we believe it credible?
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we usually weigh towards yes. >> what strikes me towards extraordinary, given the amount of money the united states is spending on intelligence, the fact isis could have been actively involved in this if that's true, is not just an intelligence failure on the sri lanka government part but the u.s. >> when you have an attack like this at multiple locations with multiple players, you have that push and pull. that the thing where we have many opportunities involved and a broken organization in terms of isis. the normal training camps and communications have all shifted and changed. that's a real challenge for intelligence collection when it goes from being a bar roureaucro much more. it gets harder. >> stay on the case. >> thank you.
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next, a power house battle of great minds on the economy. ben bernanke and hank paulson. an interview with them when we come back. drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast... ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost. unfortunately, it can't do anything about that. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands? through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. giving you a nice big edge over your competition.
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bern be together, they put out that fire. they have now written a book about their experiences called "fire fighting" the financial crisis and lessons. they join me for an exclusive interview. gentleman, pleasure to have you on. tim, one of the things you write in the book that is most worrying is were another crisis to happen and we know that these kind of crisises happ happen in capitalism periodically. they no longer have the tools to do the rescue you guys did ten years ago. >> we're in better shape in many ways in the sense the financial system is more stable and the post crisis reforms are much tougher and apply to a much broader share of the system and if those are protected and not eroded or weakened over time thanks will buy us a measure of stability. if we go into another crisis, we
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will not have the things any country has to use and we had to use in '08 and '09 to protect the country from a panic in the great depression. those were expired or taken away by the congress in the understandable inevitable anger that followed the crisis. >> ben, what about the argument people make that we're out of ammunition at this point? that in a sense you used up so much of the ammunition fighting the great recession, you lowered rates and bought all this paper that now sits on the fed's balance sheet that if there were another bad recession, the rates can go down as rapidly, you can't accumulate much more on the balance sheet. is that true? >> we didn't use up the ammunition. the feds have the rates that are neutral, the balance sheet, the
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easing has been significantly reversed. we're back to where we were in a sense but we're also in a world where interest rates generally, not just because of what central banks are doing but interest rates generally are quite low around the world that means there isn't much room to cut. we have countries at zero and above two so we have a bit more room and not as much as in the past. >> do you think bankers should have been held more responsible for ultimate ly lent in a way. why do bankers have to pay a price for that? >> first of all, it's egregious behaviors.
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mistakes were made by a lot of people. the biggest mistake was the united states government not making sure that we had a regulatory system that kept up with the financial system. i thought the thing that bothered me the most was the bonuses that were paid after everything the quite government did but i will say that in terms of the things that the three of us did when we stepped in and when we nationalized, you know, fannie and freddie what we nationalized aig you saw, you know, ceos fired and golden parachutes taken away but the right people are angry and i think the biggest reason they are angry is an american if we work hard and we succeed people expect there to be rewards and when you fail, they expect you
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to fail and they don't expect the government to come in and rescue and we weren't trying to rescue wall street, you know. you had to to do with this -- there is so much concentration to deal with a problem we had to go to the course and what we did is put a tourniquet to stop the bleeding because if we hadn't done that, if we hadn't stopped the collapse, many, many americans could have been hurt. >> tim, you said before it a great line, we saved the economy but lost the country. >> the thing about the financial crisis and the reason they are damaging is most people look at the fire and think the fire is just and the right thing to do is let it burn because that's the fairist waste to make sure people that length too much money or take advantage of
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people bear the consequences of the changes but in a serious crisis, the instinct is deeply injust. and we have panics and authority and doing things that are essential to prevent mass unemployment in a decade of lost growth but they are precisely what feels scariest and most unfair to people because there is a lot of unworthy beneficiaries. >> you're rewarding the very people seen as the arsonist. >> the series, you look like you're rewarding the arsonist but what you're doing is not for the arsonist, you're trying to protect people who are fu fundamentally of most of the incident and a panic and a depression. >> next on "gps" what other risks are looming ahead? a deepening trade war with china, another recession, a
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stock market crash? i ask my financial panel. behr ultra, a top-rated interior and exterior paint. find it exclusively at the home depot. new lower price. wow. that's a lot of asparagus. yeah, you said get a bunch of asparagus. oh, you... a bunch. i... thought you kinda... a bunch. i never thought i'd say this but i found bladder leak underwear that's actually pretty. always discreet boutique. hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. so i feel protected and pretty. always discreet boutique. who wanted to get away who used expedia to book the vacation rental which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. expedia. everything you need to go.
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bomb ocho bop bama and you were techa politician. the lame duck period of george w. bush's administration when he was unpopular because of the iraq war. i can't imagine that happening again where you have the ability in this partisan climate to work together. >> if you want to be an of -- the american political system was able to come together and do what was essential. the risk in our system of government is that if all the material things you have to do to protect people from the consequence of the severe crisis have to go through the congress, which is the way our system works except for the monetary policy of the fed, then you're leaving your faith in the hands of the willingness of these people to come together when it will be hardest to do so and when the actions most valuable
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are terribly unpopular and the choice they face is to take a boot that will cost them their job in that context. that's a hard strategy to manage the threats of a country with a complicated financial and so important to the world. the biggest risk we face is the biggest risk we face is that we'll take too long for our political system to come together and do what it's been able to do in the past, when it was essential to do that fast enough to protect people from really tragic damage. >> i have to ask you, president trump says that the fed today should do what you did in the depths of the economic crisis when the economy was cratering global economy was cratering into a depression. it should lower interest rates and it should actually begin quantitative easing. do you think that makes sense? >> the presumption of your question, you compare where we were in 2009, march of 2009 when the economy was in complete free
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fall and we were very unsure if we could stop it at all, we took the more aggressive measures that worked well. now the economy is in a much more stable position. almost ten years of expansion near full employment, so my general reaction is i trust the federal research to make the right choices and i think they should do that without political interference. >> do you think that the united states and china are going to have a trade deal? >> yeah, i would be very optimistic that they are going to have a trade deal and that it will be a positive for both countries, china has been very, very slow to open up their economy and i think it's long over due and i think it will be a positive but i continue to believe that this relationship is going to be troubled and under stress for years to come. this is by far the most
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important by lateral relationship we have in the world and i think the -- our ability to deal with china and their ability to deal with us is going to really shape really the geopolitical atmosphere or more than that the landscape of the rest of the century and i think that as the u.s. seeks to protect the national security because there is a growing view in the u.s. that china is anned a vadversary so as we seek to protect our national security and maintain economic competitiveness, you're going to see a big focus on technology and i think there is a danger that if -- and this is a danger coming from each side but if we
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try too hard to sequester our technology in the united states we will do things that are long-term economic competitiveness and will really change the shape of trade and investment around the world. >> it is almost the longest economic expansion in american history. are we due for a recession? >> that's -- ben is a better person to ask that question. this has been a very modest recovery and comes after a savage downturn and it's more stable than this true for many past expansions and it true with modest look and as long as people don't make dumb mistakes, this expansion could go on and partly a function of the long i can -- echoes of the crisis, the memory hasn't received
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completely of the consequences of getting yourselves too over extended with the dangerous financial system. >> gentlemen, pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> thank you. next on "gps" the course of history can change in an instant with a long term of particular choice of words. how the assassination of ferdman relates to this week's elections in spain. it does. ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering.
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now for our what in the world segment. there are the accidents unforeseen moments that alter the course of nations for generations to come. take the spark that began the first world war. most know that that spark was the assassination of arch duke france but it was only successful because of a single wrong turn taken by his driver. as many historians including christopher clark, he was on a motorcade with little concern for ethics of resentment of the 1908 annex. they decided to take an alternate ruoute but no one translated it to the chuzech driver that turned on the old route. the driver was alerted of his
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mistake. the car stopped in front of a general store and standing under the awning was a 19-year-old bosnia. the rest europe calls to arms, the loss of millions of lives and the devastation of whole nations is tragedy. but small slips don't always have big consequences immediately. take spain which is currently in the midst of one of the worst crisis. forced to desolve parliament and spaniards are voting in this weekend. as "the new york times" lays out in a recent story, this can be traced back to the decision more than 40 year ace go to emit a single world from the new post franco democratic constitution. politicians wanted their own ten tor -- territory and others like it
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to be described as nations. in the end in a compromise, everyone agreed to describe them instead as nationalities granting them a degree of atono many hy a and not designated a nation. that sparked a rage and moved politicians to separatest demands that have been a french pursuit. the extended stalemate since toppled two governments, reignited the long dormant fire and threatened 40 years of relative democratic harmony in spain or consider the border between the republic of ireland and northern ireland forged in 1921 for the british once they granted ireland, the border it self-seemed almost an after thought. the historian author of the new book "the border" said the irish question was considered an irritant after the first world
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war at a time britain was far more focused on alliances with the u.s. and france. when the line was drawn through homes and scores of country roads, prime minister george was satisfied that they had got rid of the irish question. but that badly drawn border fueled decades of insurgency and violence between the two irelands and today as he noted in the "new york times", it has ironically become the biggest threat to an orderly brexit because they seem to forget when clambering for the exit in 2016, it the only land border a. genuine brexit would require a hard border between europe and britain but peace between the north and south of ireland depend on that being an open border. this tension could cost teresa may her prime minister and
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britain it territorial integr y integrity. one of the things about hindsight is you can see history as inevitable. great forces and great figures moving surely toward a goal but sometimes the fate of nations hinges on a wrong turn, a single word or a hastily drawn line. up next, accidental precedence. eight men that found themselves with the most powerful job in the land, the presidency of the quite of america. a fascinating prism to look at american history when we come back.
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a. >> john tyler, andrew johnson, chester arthur, calvin coolage, lyndon johnson, they were accidental presidents as my next guest calls them thrust into the oval office when the previous president died. eight men that changed america, ceo of jigsaw and a sister company ocho google. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you for having me. >> fascinating book. what you talk about when describing these vice presidents who become president is the completely unexpected elements to it and it begins right at the
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start with john tyler who becomes president when william henry harrison dies supposedly because he got sick on his inauguration day but people didn't know the constitution was ambiguous whether the vice president became president. explain that. >> what the constitution says is that the vice president discharges the duties of president is there a vacancy. whether or not the vice president becomes president so john tyler who skips down after the inauguration and prepares for four years of irrelevance, finds out 30 days later william henry harrison is dead. he rushes back to washington because he know there will be a fight with the cabinet and congress to assert authority and be the president of the quite and the fight ensues. he ends up winning the battle and set as president even as recently as lyndon johnson holds, we forget lyndon johnson becomes president of the united
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states based on a president that john tyler sets in 1841. we didn't have the 25th ame amendment until the late 1960s that formalizes that president. >> you talk about in someways the most famous succession of the 19th seen kecentury and regs the worst president in american history. the puzzle that you try to answer is how good is the person many regard as the best president in american history have a vice president that ended up being the worst president in american history? >> that's precisely right fareed. when you look how we basically win presidential succession throughout the course of the history, it's easy to say we got lucky and navigated it and ended up okay but that neg gelects th reality and the bullet gave us andrew johnson, a man born a racist, died a racist, the last
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president to own slaves and the old confederacy that gives us the segregation. so when i set out to write this book, what i wanted to do is vin vindicate the choice of johnson in 1864 and the president didn't choose the running mate but lincoln knowing he had a slim shot at winning had an intrigue to get a war democrat from a border state on the ticket and 1864 andrew johnson was the only southern senator loyal to the union and revered in the north and because he wanted to put the union back together his rhetoric was the time with civil rights than even abraham lincoln. when he becomes president, which by the way is after an embarrassing drunken display where he takes the oath of office as vice president slobbers all over the bible when he becomes president shortly after the civil war ends and tactically he goes back to his old ways and the real andrew
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johnson makes himself known. >> then we have what i regard in someways the greatest tragedy in american history, which is the -- as you describe it, johnson essential lly resurrect slavery in another form and we seem as if we've lost lincoln's vision of the south but done with empathy until we get james garfield, this forgotten man that could have been a truly great president, right? >> that's true, fareed. i'll tell you, anyone that reads about james garfield falls in love with this man which is one of the greatest figure ideas and the tragedy of garfield besides the fact that we barely remember his name is we look at the story of civil rights in post civil america, it's a story of two presidential assassinations. abraham lincoln gives us johnson and we have momentum in the direction of segregation that
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ends up destroying the country in many respects. garfield is the only president to get the nomination without actively seeking it. it was supposed to be a battle between grant and blend and the party 4r5eders got tired of it and on the 30th something ballot he ends up getting the nomination against his own will and says i protest a man cannot get the nomination and they give it to him anyway and garfield's mission was universal suffering and education and a mentally ill office seek puts a bullet in him four months after he takes the oath of office. we never get the vision of james garfield who may because he was detached from party politics will reverse what andrew johnson started. >> the place where it does seem like regard lucky is harry truman probably the most unprepared man for office given the magnitude of the challenges the country faced when franklin roosevelt died. >> truman is a politician with
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an awe shucks mentality from new jersey that's not thought much about the world and experienced very little about the world. in 8 two days as vice president, he doesn't get a single intelligence briefing and doesn't meet a single foreign leader and out and about socializing and not briefed on the atomic bomb. on april 12th, 1945 truman finds himself trust into power while the battle is raging at the height of the war and briefed on the manhattan project to figure out what to do about this weapon and in his first four months he makes some of the most important decisions that will shape the war and post war order. >> sometimes we do get lucky. i have to leave the rest for leaders to buy this terrific book. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much. >> we will be back. ♪ to give every idea the perfect soundtrack. ♪
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last week the trump administration capped the amount of money cuban americans can send to family and friends back
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home. these transactions are at a record high around the world and brings me to my question, which of the following countries was the biggest recipient of global remittances in 2018? india? china? mexico? or the philippines? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is "working" by robert carroll. a surprisingly personal and conversational account of his life's work as a writer by america any greatest biographer. his lesson in one line, truth doesn't come easily. and now for the last look, we watched in horror as fire engulfed noter came re dame cat until the 300-foot spire came crashing down. the next day french president macron vowed to make it more beautiful. what france began building eight and a half centuries ago, the
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world will rebuild. an international competition to reconstruct the roof inspired the globe's architects. a french firm imagines an updated glass ceiling and this with a more modern look. some will envision a new symbol of the times like a greenhouse and use the spire. even if france chooses just to replicate the ancient beauty, it will end up helping whoever is chosen to repair it. already, a dutch company has shown how replacement gargoyles may be 3 d printed instead of carved and to return to the original structure, architects could return to the 3 d scans of the building created by laser measurements accurate to the millimeter. notre dame is a symbol of french resilience and putting its own spin on it as macron said, the
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fire of notre dame reminds us that our story never ends. i for one look forward to the next chapter. the answer to my gps challenge this week is a, indians aboard sent a staggering $79 billion home in 2018. china took in $67 billion when remittances to mexico were $36 billion and $34 billion was sent to the philippines. remittances will soon become the largest source of external financing in developing nations. a reminder that hard line immigration policies can actually exacerbate the policy that pushes many to migrant in the first place. call ait a vicious cycle. thanks for being part of my program. see you next week. and with panera catering, there's more to go around. panera. food as it should be.
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every day, visionaries are creating the future. ♪ so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. ♪ the united states postal service makes more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. ♪ because the future only happens with people who really know how to deliver it. who wanted to get away who used expedia to book the vacation rental which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. expedia. everything you need to go.
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hi, i'm brian stelter. welco welcome to "reliable sources ". the message for the media is coming up and a lot to report this hour, as well including the spasm on hate crimes. another case of a killer rad i can -- radicalized and a big announcement from a collision trying to get the word out about reporters in parol and comedian jordan cupper coming up. but first, another split screen america, president trump for the third year in a row opting out of the white house